Match-lines: 2006 World Cup Soccer versus Logic . . . — 2006 World Cup Statistics Section
The Magic of Complexity ... in forecasting
The Magic of Complexity
World Cup favorites usually do not emerge from a World Cup as champions (see Trivia & Curiosities). So, this section carries both the complete match-line leading to the World Cup winner in 2006, as it is unfolding on the German pitches, and (on the page following the actual match-line) are respective tables displaying what would be the logical line of matches and results, following the latest FIFA Teams' Rankings. For sure, there will be a number of interesting surprises, as the actual and the logical results pages are placed in contrast! And, taking the World Cup history into consideration, we are led to say that there is at least a very good chance that the emerging 2006 champion be a Squad other than Brazil, despite the odds heavily pointing at the five-time champion yellow-jersey Squad's camp.
As already commented elsewhere (World Cup Write-up), a factor contributing to make soccer such a fascinating sport is the little kinship it may hold with logic. Even in cases when there is a very large gap between two teams, as far as the teams' strength, one can never be sure in advance that the stronger will win–let alone when teams are more or less leveled. This of course helps increase the degree of interest that soccer and sports, in general, enjoy among fans.
Accurate forecasting underpinnes a good deal of the motivation driving both science and sheer curiosity, which of course also fuels scientific discovery. (Betting is evidently also related, though profit, rather than sheer curiosity plays the motivating role.) Logic, via which we are able to understand (thus also predict) causal relationships, has been our prediction tool par excellence. Patterns that we have been able to observe constitute a helpful tool in the difficult task (whether you call it art or science) of prediction making. The science of statistics is instrumental in revealing repetitive patterns and tendencies, as well as the different contexts in which these may or not be found, relative frequency of occurrences, etc.
The truth, however, is that true glimpsing into the future is a proscribed power, at least at our present stage in human history: anyone boasting about 100% error-proof forecasting will at best be joking. Of course certain events are more likely than others, experience tells us, and we may even be fooled into 'knowing the future' in certain situations, such as those involving social synchrony (bus or plane schedules, ceremonies and parties, etc.). On the other hand, there is a special driving agent in our pursue of knowledge, in general, and evidently also knowledge into or about the future, which obviously is where most of our unknowns lie: the more we know, the more secure we feel. Security being deeply linked to our (very basic) instinct of survival, it is not difficult to understand our seemingly fascination regarding the future and its forecast, in addition to natural curiosity.
Among the many challenges we face when attempting at forecasting, two are worth highlighting. The first of these is the contextual intricacy and minutiae that may be at stake. The weather is a good example: as the science of meteorology has advanced, and new technology (both space and computer related) has become available, weather forecasts have become far more reliable than they were, say, half a century ago. In addition, it has become possible to make weather related predictions far more in advance. But as it is not conceivable that we can take into account every single detail (variable) that may play a role in determining the weather (so rich the array of minutiae involved), there may always be surprises. Meteorologists thus have a full time job in their hands, as the accuracy we can rely on nowadays requires accompanying the development of predictions made in advance, and making whatever corrections may become needed, so the forecasts can appropriately match the weather as it unfolds in real life–or nearly so.
In the world of soccer, one can very easily find analogues, that is, situations in which unforeseeable details come into play, to invalidate even the most meticulous of forecasts. See related remark, in the context of an artificial intelligence model developed to forecast the results of this (2006) World Cup, referred to in the eBook–page If logic sufficed.... In fact, none of the forecasts linked to from that page coincides. Difference in the number and in the choice of variables (see above paragraph) most likely accounts for the discrepancies among these results.
Take, for example, the final match in France (1998), when Les Bleus managed a sweeping victory over a hard to recognize Brazilian Squad, given their performance in the previous World Cup matches, that year. Though perhaps not the single detail behind Brazil's slack play on that Sunday, certainly a destabilizing factor was Ronaldo's (still mysterious) sudden indisposition, that Sunday morning, which culminated with the forward's going to the stadium directly from a hospital. Not only was Ronaldo beneath his usual skills, but also the entire yellow-jersey squad seemed not to have overcome the shock they had been through, preceding the match, as a result of Ronaldo's physical state. The Brazilian team might have performed differently, had Ronaldo not been allowed to play–but this is just one more, among the many if's regarding that match, the answers to which will never be known. We can only know what has indeed taken place, that is, come to manifest itself as reality, the rest constituting mere speculation (to which we have just as much access as to what lies in the future).
What is really known is that Ronaldo's sudden indisposition, unusual as this sort of situation really is, was a detail that no one could foresee would be there! Yet it was suddenly there, and it definitely had a certain (or a great) degree of influence in the unfolding, and thus in the result, of the match. It is of course possible that that great French Squad of 1998 would have won the match anyway, however more challenging it could have been, had Ronaldo not fallen victim of that odd indisposition. But, once again, these are but unanswerable if's.
There are just too many factors, in soccer, that can contribute to determining the course and the result of any given match! Every one of the eleven players involved, not to mention the team manager and trainers, individually add to or subtract from what might be taken as an average expected performance. External factors may do the same, such as the ball, the pitch, and the weather–and of course so may the referee and his assistants. Moreover, the fact that a match is played along ninety minutes, whereas it may take just a few seconds' play for a goal to get scored, this means that the amount of minutiae that may come to have a determining role in the result of a match increases exponentially. It is thus easy to understand why soccer can be (and often is) so unpredictable and so surprising–thus also so fascinating.
The other relevant (and related) challenge that we face, when we attempt to forecast, is that life is not as logical as one might wish it to be. Thus, logical deductions, if relied on exclusively, may turn out to be somewhat (or even acutely!) misleading, no matter how sound the reasoning underlying these deductions could have been.
The world of soccer can again provide plenty of examples of the sort that no logical explanation seems possible, at least a priori. Take a couple of Germany's friendly matches, in the build-up to the World Cup: the German Squad met both victory and defeat at the same large score of 4x1, respectively against the United States (currently fifth in FIFA's Teams' Ranking), and against Italy (currently thirteenth in FIFA's Teams' Ranking, Germany, itself, lying in nineteenth). So the German Squad defeats what is supposedly the currently stronger team of the two (the United States and Italy), whereas they find defeat playing against a team ranking eight places behind the team that they defeat. This could hardly be called logical... And more: the German Squad's current rank, at 19th place, would have logically suggested that they would have likely been defeated in both matches, given both of their opponents in question ranking higher. Whatever logic one tries to make out of it, it seems to fail!
So, this section allows seeing how far off the actual World Cup and a logical outlook in advance may turn out, when compared! Let's follow the results and find out. You don't need to be adept to betting at World Cups to enjoy looking at the tables on the pages to follow, and examining how they both compare and contrast. I, for one, have never placed a single bet on anything, and yet find it always most fascinating to observe how real life enfolds (that is, the one we either witness or experience, whether first or second hand), in contrast to how we anticipate it might, whether relying on logic or on the observation of recurrent patterns, or both, as we attempt to foresee. The future, and time, in general, are captivating themes of study–after all, Time is somewhat synonymous with Life, itself. Soccer, part of Life (human experience), as it is, can pleasantly allow us interesting insights that can be used elsewhere, while we enjoy a favorite sport.
Before moving on to another section in this eBook, you may find it curious to see the Beyond logic... page, for a few fun numerical attempts at predicting (most of which mentioned on the FIFA site), as well as see the Soccernomics! page for an original approach at predicting the World Cup outcome, which did not exactly bear a relationship to soccer, but which actually turned out to be remarkably accurate, give or take a very small margin of error!
Use the brief table of contents, above, to reach the actual or the logical match-lines, and to compare the two.
Below are [1] a menu carrying the complete contents of the Statistics Section; [2] a reference table, displaying all country flags, abbreviations, and links to every squad, as well as to their respective World Cup Groups in the first phase of the tournament; and [3] a brief overall eBook menu .
Abbreviations, above: used by FIFA, as well as in this eBook.
Please Note: ESP for Spain, and KSA for Saudi Arabia, above.
Numbers 1-4, above, correspond to the numbering used for the Groups drawing,
in Leipzig (2005), number one being the seed.squad, in each Group.
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World Cup Match Line
WC Groups & FIFA Rankings
Match by Match
ENG: England
ARG: Argentina
MEX: Mexico
CRC: Costa Rica
PAR: Paraguay
CIV: Côte d'Ivoire
IRN: Iran
POL: Poland
TRI: Trinidad and Tobago
SCG: Serbia and Montenegro
ANG: Angola
ECU: Ecuador
SWE: Sweden
NED: Netherlands
BRA: Brazil
ESP: Spain
GHA: Ghana
CRO: Croatia
SUI: Switzerland
UKR: Ukraine
USA: United States
AUS: Australia
KOR: Korea Republic
TUN: Tunisia
CZE: Czech Republic
JPN: Japan
TOG: Togo
KSA: Saudi Arabia
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